Skip the futures-market noise and read the industry's own reference sheet: the International Coffee Organization publishes its composite indicator price (I-CIP) every trading day. Here is the first half of July, verbatim: 280.17¢/lb on July 1 → 309.80¢ at the July 9 peak → 293.58¢ on July 15. An 11% surge and a 5% retreat, inside nine trading days.
Brazilian Naturals — the workhorse of most espresso blends — moved harder: 306.87¢ on July 2 to 349.86¢ on July 9, a 14% jump in five sessions, before easing back to 330.29¢. The driver, per market reporting: rain forecasts over Brazil's harvest during the critical drying window, colliding with tariff-disrupted trade flows.
The ICO composite indicator's July round trip, in US cents per pound: the month's low (July 2), peak (July 9), and July 15 close. Month average so far: 290.94¢.
And here is the strange part: the supply picture on paper is a record.
USDA's own world circular forecasts record world coffee production, and Brazil's 2026/27 harvest is widely expected to be its biggest in years. Record supply forecasts and double-digit weekly price swings are not a contradiction — they're what a market looks like when everyone is guessing about weather during the one month that decides bean quality. Volatility, not price level, is now the thing to manage.
Sources (primary, verified today): ICO Indicator Prices, July 2026 (I-CIP) — all cents-per-pound figures quoted directly from the ICO daily table · USDA FAS, "Coffee: World Markets and Trade" — record world production forecast · market-driver context (Brazil harvest rains, tariff flows) via Trading Economics and ING commentary, July 15, 2026. Caveat: indicator prices are not your landed cost — differentials, freight, and your importer's book all sit on top; nothing here is a recommendation to buy or hold anything.
Green coffee did a round trip this month, and the industry's own reference sheet shows exactly how wild it was. The ICO composite indicator, verbatim from the daily table: 280¢/lb on July 1. 310¢ at the July 9 peak. 294¢ yesterday. An 11% surge and a 5% retreat in nine trading days. Brazilian Naturals — the backbone of most espresso blends — moved harder: 307¢ to 350¢ in five sessions. The driver: rain forecasts over Brazil's harvest during the drying window, on top of tariff-scrambled trade flows. The strange part: USDA is simultaneously forecasting record world production. Record supply on paper AND double-digit weekly swings — that's what a market looks like when weather during one critical month decides bean quality. The thing to manage now isn't the price level. It's the volatility. If you're a roaster: this is the month to talk to your importer about laddering commitments instead of one big fixed-price bet. And if you reprice the menu, anchor it to the public ICO number — a neutral source your customers can check beats "costs went up." Source: ICO I-CIP daily indicator table, July 2026; USDA FAS world circular. Read the source, not the coverage.
Use the MRP Personal Design System (Signature). Create a 1080x1350 animated data piece titled "The July Round Trip." Bone field (#F4F1EC), Ink type (#141414), Coral Bright (#FF6A4D) reserved for the three big prices, Coral Deep (#D9401F) for kickers and small tags. Cormorant for numbers and headline, Manrope Light for captions. Tall, airy, left-aligned — a commodity chart set like a poem. Sequence (about 12 seconds, calm — no ticker energy): 1. Kicker top-left in Coral Deep: "ICO DAILY INDICATOR · JULY 2026" — types on and settles. 2. A thin ink line draws a minimal price path left to right: gentle rise, sharp peak, partial fall — no axes, no grid, just the gesture of the month. 3. As the line passes each landmark, a large Cormorant number in Coral Bright settles onto it in sequence: "278" (small caption: July 2, low) … "310" (July 9, peak) … "294" (July 15). 4. The line and numbers hold; one Cormorant italic fades in beneath: "An 11% surge and a 5% retreat, in nine trading days." 5. Beat. The italic swaps to: "And USDA is forecasting record world production." Hold — let the contradiction sit. 6. End card: "Volatility is the thing to manage now." in Cormorant; footer in Manrope Light: "ICO I-CIP · USDA FAS · July 16, 2026." Close with the SignatureMark (Italiana "Meschelle Peterson" + code63labs), bottom-left. Motion language: one drawn line, settling numbers, crossfades. No bounces, no glow, no candlesticks. Restraint is the aesthetic.
FIRST SOURCE · one verified original-source finding, composed for one reader · this edition: independent coffee roasters