EIA's July Short-Term Energy Outlook landed on July 7, and the easy read is already circulating: power is getting cheaper. It's true, and EIA says it plainly — "We forecast U.S. wholesale electricity prices this summer will be $4 per megawatthour (MWh) lower than last year, hovering at an average of $45/MWh." Regionally it's dramatic: at the Northwest's Mid-Columbia hub, prices drop 46%, from $50/MWh last summer to $27 this one. California falls 30% to $23/MWh. The Southwest, 27% to $28. MISO, 18%.
Now open the same document to Table 7c and read the line your customer actually pays. The U.S. average residential retail price: 17.30¢/kWh in 2025 → 18.29¢ in 2026 → 18.70¢ in 2027. Wholesale is what a utility pays for power at the hub. Retail is what a household pays for power at the meter — and it carries transmission, distribution, and everything else the grid is currently spending money on. In EIA's own forecast, these two lines move in opposite directions, and only one of them shows up on the bill.
Both are EIA's, from the same July outlook. Neither is wrong. They describe different transactions.
U.S. average residential retail electricity price in cents per kilowatt-hour: 2025 actual, and EIA's 2026 and 2027 forecasts (Table 7c, July 2026 STEO).
Regional spread is the whole game: Middle Atlantic goes 22.70¢ to 25.15¢ in one year — up 10.8% — while the Mountain region moves 14.41¢ to 14.81¢. The same national headline means very different things in New Jersey and Nevada.
The other half of the honest answer: the federal credit really is gone, and it's worth quoting the statute rather than the chatter. 26 U.S.C. §25D(h), current through July 15, 2026: "The credit allowed under this section shall not apply with respect to any expenditures made after December 31, 2025." No sunset schedule, no phase-down — a date. Any pitch still gesturing at "the 30% federal credit" for a new residential expenditure today is describing a credit that the law says does not apply.
And yet EIA, forecasting into that same post-credit world, has residential small-scale solar capacity going from 40.5 GW at the end of 2025 to 44.5 GW in 2026 to 48.4 GW in 2027 — up about 19.5% in two years without the credit. That's not a rebuttal to the loss of 25D; it's a measurement of what's left after it: rising retail rates, falling hardware costs, and homeowners doing the arithmetic anyway.
Honest limits. EIA's 2026 and 2027 figures are forecasts, not actuals, and EIA says weather "remains the main uncertainty in our forecast"; the wholesale declines it projects are seasonal summer averages that a heat wave can spike. Retail rates are set by state regulators and utilities, not by EIA — the STEO projects them, it does not decide them, and your local rate case matters more than the national line. Census-region averages are not your utility's tariff. And nothing here is tax advice: §25D's termination is quoted from the statute, but what any individual household can claim for work already done in 2025 is a question for their preparer.
Sources (primary, verified today): EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2026 (current forecast dated July 7, 2026) — wholesale price passages quoted verbatim from the report text; residential retail prices taken directly from STEO Table 7c, "U.S. Regional Electricity Prices to Ultimate Customers"; small-scale solar capacity from STEO Table 7e (systems smaller than one megawatt, residential sector, gigawatts at end of period). Statutory text from 26 U.S.C. §25D(h), U.S. House Office of the Law Revision Counsel, current through July 15, 2026. All percentage changes computed from EIA's published figures.
EIA's July outlook says wholesale electricity prices are falling this summer. In the Northwest, 46% — $50/MWh down to $27. California, down 30%. Nationally, $45/MWh, four dollars cheaper than last year. So solar's dead, right? Open the same document to Table 7c. The U.S. average residential retail price — the one on your customer's bill: 17.30¢/kWh in 2025. 18.29¢ in 2026. 18.70¢ in 2027. Wholesale is what a utility pays for power at the hub. Retail is what a household pays at the meter, and it carries transmission, distribution, and everything else the grid is spending money on right now. Same forecast, same agency, two lines moving in opposite directions. Only one of them is on the bill. And yes — the federal credit is gone. Worth quoting the statute instead of the chatter. 26 U.S.C. §25D(h): "The credit allowed under this section shall not apply with respect to any expenditures made after December 31, 2025." Not a phase-down. A date. Here's the part I didn't expect: EIA, forecasting into that same post-credit world, still has residential small-scale solar capacity going 40.5 GW → 44.5 → 48.4 by 2027. Up ~19.5%, no credit. If you sell solar: stop arguing with the wholesale headline. Pull your census region's row from Table 7c and show it. Middle Atlantic goes 22.70¢ to 25.15¢ in a single year. That's a different conversation than the national average — and it's the actual one. Read the source, not the coverage.
Use the MRP Personal Design System (Signature). Create a 1080x1350 animated data piece titled "Two Lines, Opposite Directions." Bone field (#F4F1EC), Ink type (#141414), Coral Bright (#FF6A4D) reserved for the residential price figures only, Coral Deep (#D9401F) for the kicker and small tags. Cormorant for numbers and headline, Manrope Light for captions. Tall, airy, left-aligned — an energy chart set like stationery. Sequence (about 13 seconds, calm and editorial — no ticker energy): 1. Kicker top-left in Coral Deep, letter-spaced uppercase: "EIA SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK · JULY 7, 2026" — types on and settles. 2. A thin ink hairline draws left to right and bends DOWNWARD. A large Cormorant "−46%" settles onto it in plain Ink (not Coral — this is the decoy). Manrope Light caption: "wholesale power, Northwest hub, this summer." Hold two beats. Let it look like the whole story. 3. Beat. A second hairline draws from the same origin, bending UPWARD, crossing the first. Onto it, in Coral Bright, three Cormorant numbers settle in sequence with a soft ease: "17.30" … "18.29" … "18.70". Manrope Light caption fades in: "residential retail, cents per kilowatt-hour — 2025, 2026, 2027." 4. The X of the two crossing lines holds on screen. One Cormorant italic fades in beneath: "Same forecast. Same agency." 5. The decoy line and its −46% fade to 30% opacity; the Coral line stays full. Italic swaps to: "Only one of them is on the bill." 6. End card: everything clears but one Cormorant line — "Read Table 7c." Footer in Manrope Light: "EIA STEO · Table 7c · July 2026." Close with the SignatureMark (Italiana "Meschelle Peterson" + code63labs handle), bottom-left. Motion language: two drawn hairlines, settling numbers, opacity crossfades. No bounces, no glow, no candlesticks, no sun iconography. Restraint is the aesthetic.
FIRST SOURCE · one verified original-source finding, composed for one reader · this edition: residential solar installers